Finance & Strategy27 August 2026
Finance & Strategy · Brisbane

Did the SMSF Lending Ban Just Make Brisbane's Apartment Shortage Worse?

The May 2026 Budget banned new SMSF borrowing for residential property. Property advisory firm Charter Keck Cramer says its own valuers estimate SMSF investors made up 20 to 30% of off-the-plan apartment buyers in Melbourne and Brisbane, a buyer pool that has now largely disappeared. Layer that onto a Brisbane apartment pipeline that was already falling short of demand, and the firm's own conclusion is blunt: supply gets worse, not better.

By PropTalk Editorial27 August 20266 min readSource: Charter Keck Cramer
Brisbane apartment construction, August 2026. Photo credit TK.
Brisbane's annual apartment supply gap
Charter Keck Cramer, H1 2026 forecast
Annual demand
5,500–6,600
Forecast supply (3yr avg)
4,100
Annual shortfall
1,400–2,500
Figures are apartment units (BTS and BTR combined). Underlying demand is estimated by Charter Keck Cramer using Centre for Population projections, average household size, and dwelling-mix assumptions. Source: Charter Keck Cramer, State of the Market H1-2026.

What actually changed

The May 2026 Federal Budget banned new limited recourse borrowing arrangements by self-managed super funds for residential property. In practical terms, an SMSF can no longer borrow to buy a residential property, though it can still purchase one outright using existing cash or liquid assets without a loan. The change triggered an 8.6% drop in investor loan volumes nationally in its immediate aftermath, and financial advisers have reported a wave of SMSF trustees rethinking deals that were already in motion. We covered the mechanics of this rule change in more detail in our earlier piece on SMSF property investment in Brisbane; this article looks at what the change appears to be doing to the market on the ground.

Why Charter Keck Cramer says this could backfire

Charter Keck Cramer's H1 2026 State of the Market report goes further than simply noting the change. Based on discussions with its residential valuers, the firm estimates SMSF investors made up roughly 20 to 30% of off-the-plan buyers of Build to Sell (BTS) apartments in Melbourne and Brisbane, and that this buyer pool has now largely disappeared. The firm's view is that this wasn't a like-for-like swap, with other investor types simply stepping in to fill the gap. Instead, its research describes investors reconsidering all asset classes altogether, not just shifting which property they buy.

Government is strongly advised to carve out the SMSF lending changes and allow these buyers to continue to purchase new BTS apartments under the previous settings.

Paraphrased from Charter Keck Cramer, State of the Market H1-2026, BTS Apartment Market Executive Summary

The firm's broader argument is that removing a meaningful slice of the buyer pool for new apartments, at a time when new supply is already scarce, risks the opposite of the policy's intent: less new stock, not more affordable housing. Whether that plays out as forecast will depend on how the market actually responds over the next 12 to 24 months, and Charter Keck Cramer's own report acknowledges this is a "wait and see" period for developers and financiers while the changes are fully legislated.

Brisbane's supply gap, by the numbers

This warning lands on a Brisbane apartment market that was already tight before the SMSF change. Charter Keck Cramer's own tracking shows Brisbane BTS apartment launches of 4,900 in the past 12 months, well above the 10 and 5-year averages, a response to chronic undersupply and strong demand. But commencements, the point at which launched projects actually start construction, ran at only 3,200 over the same period, held back by building industry capacity constraints.

Brisbane apartment supply, last 12 months
BTS and BTR
BTS launched
4,900
BTS commenced
3,200
BTR completed
800

Build to Rent isn't yet operating at a scale that can absorb the gap. Charter Keck Cramer records 1,300 BTR apartments currently under construction in Brisbane, plus a further 2,800 approved but not yet funded. That's a meaningful pipeline, but it's a fraction of the BTS volume moving through the system, and the report notes several of those approved BTR projects are still chasing the equity finance needed to actually proceed.

What this means for buyers and investors

If Charter Keck Cramer's read is right, the practical effect is fewer new apartments reaching the market over the next few years than would otherwise have been the case, which historically shows up as further upward pressure on both new-build prices and rents rather than relief. For anyone weighing established versus off-the-plan stock, a shrinking buyer pool for new apartments could mean softer competition and more room to negotiate on off-the-plan purchases in the near term, though that needs to be weighed against the settlement and construction-timeline risks the report separately flags for the BTS sector generally. This is Charter Keck Cramer's own analysis and forecast, not a certainty, and the actual outcome will depend on how the Budget changes are finally legislated.

Frequently asked questions

The Budget banned new limited recourse borrowing arrangements by SMSFs for residential property, meaning SMSFs can no longer borrow to buy one. An SMSF can still buy outright using existing cash or liquid assets. National investor loan volumes fell 8.6% in the aftermath.
Charter Keck Cramer's valuers estimate SMSF investors made up around 20 to 30% of off-the-plan Build to Sell apartment buyers in Melbourne and Brisbane, a buyer pool that has largely disappeared since the change.
No. Charter Keck Cramer estimates Brisbane's underlying annual apartment demand at 5,500 to 6,600 units, against forecast supply of around 4,100 units a year, a shortfall of roughly 1,400 to 2,500 apartments annually.
Not at current volumes. Brisbane BTR supply (800 completed, 1,300 under construction) is running well behind BTS volumes over the same period, so it isn't yet large enough to close the gap on its own.

Figures on SMSF buyer share, Brisbane apartment launches, commencements and supply forecasts are drawn from Charter Keck Cramer's State of the Market H1-2026 report (Residential Build to Sell & Build to Rent Apartments, Key National Metropolitan Areas). This article cites selected headline findings from that report with attribution; it does not reproduce the report's charts, tables or full dataset, consistent with the report's own usage terms. Details of the May 2026 Federal Budget SMSF lending changes and the 8.6% investor loan decline are drawn from independent news reporting. These figures should be checked against Charter Keck Cramer's original report and official Budget documentation before being relied upon. This article is general commentary only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.